Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.371407 15.277721 17.321475 19.671096 22.293136 25.124474 28.408376
2025-10-12 10.592580 13.201231 16.207385 19.909401 24.325958 29.405498 35.667679
2025-10-19 9.017880 11.892238 15.362276 19.825750 25.376915 32.013039 40.501520
2025-10-26 7.733729 10.743246 14.534067 19.605464 26.150817 34.246449 44.940121
2025-11-02 6.849816 9.956602 14.016439 19.633418 27.114049 36.634457 49.550697
2025-11-09 6.174228 9.356967 13.658240 19.793266 28.197220 39.167906 54.407103
2025-11-16 5.535979 8.729420 13.184548 19.723000 28.917089 41.203685 58.643628
2025-11-23 4.960695 8.126627 12.679672 19.545107 29.439551 42.954435 62.526369
2025-11-30 4.552464 7.726288 12.420293 19.675521 30.367864 45.263322 67.225664
2025-12-07 4.300014 7.536852 12.447152 20.207583 31.875151 48.416482 73.196195
2025-12-14 3.886146 7.049911 11.980578 19.958424 32.206563 49.890941 76.823160
2025-12-21 3.388858 6.377258 11.169610 19.117572 31.589474 49.941479 78.370177
2025-12-28 3.232348 6.269669 11.256186 19.694553 33.172788 53.311038 84.935858
2026-01-04 3.050053 6.100403 11.228336 20.083161 34.478707 56.316137 91.075265
2026-01-11 2.790061 5.765894 10.895818 19.944757 34.930749 58.026027 95.305946
2026-01-18 2.545611 5.435273 10.542486 19.742666 35.258308 59.541519 99.276271
2026-01-25 2.360982 5.198588 10.332534 19.763791 35.939060 61.617375 104.163780
2026-02-01 2.214306 5.020743 10.212273 19.927107 36.853857 64.084570 109.731302
2026-02-08 2.047364 4.785903 9.969502 19.855511 37.360981 65.906438 114.325650
2026-02-15 1.881439 4.536261 9.679318 19.676907 37.667903 67.402651 118.433025
2026-02-22 1.768473 4.386120 9.565220 19.807966 38.509557 69.793642 124.046898
2026-03-01 1.711074 4.349946 9.667781 20.343180 40.080230 73.440282 131.813980
2026-03-08 1.570433 4.116256 9.363810 20.092551 40.233127 74.706179 135.684694